Predicción de alerta volcánica nivel 3 para el monte Aso

¿Elevará Japón la alerta de erupción del monte Aso al nivel 3 o superior antes del 30 de junio de 2026?

Resumen del evento

This market asks whether the Japan Meteorological Agency would raise Mount Aso's eruption alert to level 3 or higher by the end of June 2026. It is strong because the warning level comes from one official authority and the user question is very concrete.

Contexto del mercado

Volcanic alert events combine news value, practical importance, and highly verifiable outcomes. Users search whether Mount Aso is erupting, whether the warning level has changed, and whether travel or nearby areas may be affected. A level-3 threshold gives the topic a cleaner outcome boundary than a vague discussion of volcanic activity.

Últimas novedades

  • 2026-06-27 | Japan Meteorological Agency | Only the JMA officially determines the alert level
    For this type of market, media coverage can add context, but the result turns entirely on whether the JMA formally raises the level.
    Abrir fuente
  • 2026-06-27 | NHK | Domestic coverage can quickly amplify any warning-level change
    Users often first see a volcanic news update and then return to the official page to confirm whether the level actually changed.
    Abrir fuente
  • 2026-06-27 | Kyodo News | Alert-level topics naturally fit short-window discussion
    A warning-level threshold is much easier to settle than a broad argument over whether a volcano feels active.
    Abrir fuente

Criterios de decisión

  • YES: the JMA formally raises Mount Aso's eruption alert level to 3 or above before the deadline.
  • NO: the official level never reaches 3 by the end of June.
  • OTHER: the official source fails, the record cannot be verified, or the public level history becomes unavailable.

Cronología y puntos clave

  • Observation window: until the page deadline on July 1, 2026 Beijing Time.
  • YES node: the JMA page clearly shows alert level 3, 4, or 5.
  • NO node: the official page remains below level 3 throughout the window.
  • OTHER node: broken warning page, missing record, or unresolved source conflict.

Indicadores clave

  • The JMA Mount Aso volcano information page.
  • Synchronized reporting from NHK and Kyodo on any alert change.
  • Whether volcanic activity increases without a corresponding official level upgrade.

Mercados relacionados

Preguntas frecuentes

  • Does this track eruption activity or the alert level?
    It tracks the official alert level reaching 3 or above.
  • What if activity intensifies but the level stays below 3?
    That still resolves NO because the market follows the official level result.
  • Why do warning-level markets have search value?
    Because users naturally ask whether an official warning will be upgraded.

Este contenido organiza información pública, rutas verificables y focos de debate. No constituye una predicción de HiYesNo; el resultado final sigue las reglas de resolución de la página.

  • Sí
  • No

Event Details

El monte Aso subió al nivel 2 el 21 de junio. Predice si llegará al nivel 3 o superior antes de finalizar el mes.

Final Result

No

Outcomes

  • Sí 50%
  • No 50%

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Japan Meteorological Agency raises the eruption alert level for Mount Aso to Level 3 or higher at any time after this market opens and on or before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM Japan Standard Time. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

Mount Aso was at eruption alert Level 2 when this market was created. A qualifying official announcement must set the eruption alert level to Level 3, Level 4, or Level 5. Explanatory information, volcanic observations, ash forecasts, or an eruption notice that does not raise the official alert level to at least Level 3 does not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be the Japan Meteorological Agency's official Mount Aso volcano warnings and alert-level history.

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