What Is a Prediction Market? A Beginner's Guide to HiYesNo

Updated: 2026-06-28 · Author: HiYesNo Editorial Team · Type: Learning Article

A prediction market is a trading platform where participants stake real assets on the outcomes of future events. Each market offers a binary YES or NO outcome: if you back the correct side, your shares settle at 1 USDT each; if you back the wrong side, they expire worthless. Share prices act as real-time probability signals — a YES share trading at $0.65 implies a ~65% market-implied probability that the event will occur.

On HiYesNo, every prediction market is settled in USDT on the Polygon blockchain and resolved on-chain by the UMA oracle, ensuring outcomes are transparent and tamper-proof. New users only need a MetaMask or WalletConnect-compatible wallet to get started.

Three Things to Know Before Trading on HiYesNo

• Price equals probability: The higher the YES share price, the more the market believes the event will happen. If you think the market is wrong, you can buy the underpriced side.
• USDT settlement, ultra-low gas: HiYesNo runs on Polygon, so gas fees are typically under $0.01 USDT per transaction — far cheaper than Ethereum mainnet.
• On-chain resolution, fully auditable: All settlement decisions are made by the UMA oracle and recorded on-chain. Anyone can verify the outcome; no one can alter it after the fact.