Will Trump's Approval Rating Hit 50% in 2026? Live Prediction Market | HiYesNo

Will Trump's approval rating exceed 50% by end of 2026?

Background

President Trump returned to the White House for his second term in January 2025. According to the RealClearPolitics (RCP) composite polling average, his approval rating has long hovered in the 40–47% range. Reaching or breaching 50% is widely regarded as a key benchmark for majority public support.

Key Timeline

  • Approval at inauguration (Jan 2025): ~47%, then declined amid policy controversies.
  • As of June 2026, RCP composite average stands near 43–44%, still well below 50%.
  • November 2026 U.S. midterm elections are expected to be a major factor in polling trends.
  • Resolution deadline: December 31, 2026 23:59 Beijing Time (UTC+8).

Possible Outcomes

  • "Yes" resolves if the RCP composite reaches 50.0% or higher at any single data point before the deadline.
  • "No" resolves if the composite stays below 50.0% at every data point through the deadline.
  • "Other" resolves if RCP changes methodology materially, stops publishing, or results cannot be verified within 7 days after the deadline.

Reference Information

  • Primary source: RealClearPolitics.com composite average. Secondary: Silver Bulletin, FiveThirtyEight.
  • Historical context: Trump's first term (2017–2021) never exceeded 50% on the RCP average.
  • Biden's peak was ~56%; Obama peaked near 67%; post-9/11 Bush reached 90%+.

FAQ

  • Does a single poll count?
    No. Only the RCP composite average is used for resolution, not any individual poll.
  • What if sources disagree?
    RCP composite is primary. If RCP is unavailable, Silver Bulletin or FiveThirtyEight composite is used.
  • Will HiYesNo predict the outcome?
    No. HiYesNo provides a prediction market; it does not take positions or make forecasts.
  • When does this market resolve?
    Deadline is December 31, 2026 23:59 Beijing Time. Resolution is executed on-chain by the UMA oracle.
  • Yes
  • No
  • Other

Event Details

Predict whether Trump's approval rating will reach 50% by end of 2026 — settled on the RealClearPolitics composite average, USDT wagering, on-chain resolution by UMA.

Outcomes

  • Yes 50%
  • No 50%
  • Other

Resolution Rules

This market resolves to "Yes" if the RealClearPolitics (RCP) composite polling average for President Trump's job approval rating reaches 50.0% or higher at any single data point published before December 31, 2026 23:59 Beijing Time (UTC+8). It resolves to "No" if the RCP composite average remains below 50.0% through that deadline without ever reaching 50.0% at any recorded data point. It resolves to "Other" if: (a) RealClearPolitics discontinues or materially changes its composite methodology; (b) the composite average is not published or updated for more than 30 consecutive days before the deadline; or (c) the result cannot be verified from RCP or at least two of the secondary sources (Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, FiveThirtyEight) within 7 days after the deadline. Primary resolution source: RealClearPolitics.com composite average. Secondary sources: Silver Bulletin (natesilver.net), FiveThirtyEight (fivethirtyeight.com). The threshold boundary is ≥50.0% (fifty percent, inclusive). This rule is intended to be objectively verifiable and to cover 100% of possible outcomes.

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