이란 핵협상 예측｜6월 30일까지 농축 중단 합의?

이란은 2026년 6월 30일까지 우라늄 농축 중단에 합의할까?

이벤트 소개

This market tracks whether Iran would agree to end uranium enrichment by June 30, 2026. Its prediction value comes from a clear policy boundary: whether an official Iranian or authoritative international source confirms a real agreement to stop enrichment.

시장 배경

Iran's enrichment program sits at the center of nuclear diplomacy search demand. Users look for negotiation progress, IAEA language, and whether any real policy shift has occurred. That gives the event both a strong news backdrop and a sharp dispute line, because even a small change would matter for regional security, energy, and diplomacy.

최신 동향

  • 2026-06-27 | IAEA | The IAEA remains the key public source for nuclear verification
    If the market direction changes, IAEA reports or statements are often the first place outside observers look for confirmation.
    출처 열기
  • 2026-06-27 | Reuters | Negotiation coverage keeps circling enrichment and inspection terms
    For users, the question is not only technical but political: would talks produce a real concession or not?
    출처 열기
  • 2026-06-27 | AP News | Iranian official messaging and outside responses continue to pull expectations in different directions
    That tension is exactly why the event can carry both strong search interest and a real Yes-versus-No split.
    출처 열기

판단 기준

  • YES: a verifiable official or authoritative source confirms that Iran agreed to end uranium enrichment before the deadline.
  • NO: no such agreement appears by the deadline, or public official language clearly shows Iran did not agree.
  • OTHER: the main sources conflict or remain too vague to determine whether a formal agreement was reached.

타임라인과 핵심 포인트

  • Observation window: until the page deadline on July 1, 2026 Beijing Time.
  • YES node: official Iranian statement, IAEA communication, or authoritative joint diplomatic statement confirming agreement.
  • NO node: no formal agreement by the deadline, or an explicit refusal to end enrichment.
  • OTHER node: conflicting or ambiguous wording prevents a clear reading.

핵심 관찰 지표

  • IAEA reports and public statements.
  • Formal statements from Iranian officials and foreign ministries.
  • Cross-confirmation from Reuters, AP, and similar authoritative reporting.

관련 시장

자주 묻는 질문

  • Does soft language or goodwill count as YES?
    No. The agreement must clearly amount to ending enrichment.
  • What if only some activity is paused?
    That only counts if the public language clearly meets the market standard for ending enrichment.
  • Why is this a strong prediction topic?
    Because it combines breaking-news intent, policy disagreement, and objective verification.

위 내용은 공개 정보, 검증 가능한 경로, 현재 쟁점을 정리한 것이며 HiYesNo의 예측이 아닙니다. 최종 결과는 페이지의 정산 규칙을 따릅니다.

  • 예
  • 아니오

Event Details

이란이 2026년 6월 30일까지 모든 우라늄 농축 종료에 공개 합의할지 예측하세요.

Final Result

아니오

Outcomes

  • 예 50%
  • 아니오 50%

Resolution Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

An official Iranian pledge to end all uranium enrichment qualifies whether it is unilateral or part of an agreement with the United States, Israel, or another party. A pledge made before the deadline qualifies regardless of when it takes effect, and a temporary end to all enrichment also qualifies.

An agreement merely to limit enrichment levels or reduce enrichment below a threshold does not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, supported where available by official statements.

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