Super Mario Galaxy Movie Mexico Box Office Prediction

Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie reach MX$1.2B in Mexico by July 31?

Event Snapshot

This is a box-office threshold market on whether The Super Mario Galaxy Movie can reach MX$1.2B in Mexico by July 31, 2026. Users search Mexico gross, family-film hold strength, local momentum, and milestone progress, all verifiable through public box-office sources.

Market Background

Regional box-office thresholds are ideal for locally searchable content pages. Users often care not just about worldwide performance but about Mexico-specific momentum, family turnout, and whether a local milestone gets crossed. MX$1.2B is both concrete and easy to verify.

Latest Developments

  • 2026-07-05 | Box Office Mojo | The Mexico territory gross page is the clearest verification surface
    This kind of regional box-office market follows a single Mexico cumulative standard rather than scattered media reports. A public cumulative page maps directly to the threshold question.
    Open source
  • 2026-07-05 | The Numbers | Family-film long-tail hold shapes the pace toward the line
    These films often do not build their entire gain in one weekend. They accumulate through repeated family attendance over multiple weeks, which makes the cumulative curve worth tracking.
    Open source
  • 2026-07-05 | HiYesNo | A clean 'MX$1.2B or not' line works better than vague popularity talk
    A fixed local box-office threshold lets the page absorb film heat while compressing the result into a verifiable finish line.
    Open source

Decision Criteria

  • Yes: an authoritative box-office source confirms that The Super Mario Galaxy Movie reaches or exceeds MX$1.2B in Mexico.
  • No: by August 1, 2026 12:59 Beijing Time, the authoritative Mexico cumulative total still remains below MX$1.2B.
  • Other: the counting method, film object, or Mexico reporting page changes materially, making the result non-comparable or unverifiable.

Timeline And Key Nodes

  • Observation window: through August 1, 2026 12:59 Beijing Time.
  • Yes trigger: any authoritative Mexico cumulative snapshot shows MX$1.2B or more.
  • No trigger: every reviewable snapshot before the deadline stays below MX$1.2B.

Key Indicators

  • Authoritative Mexico cumulative box-office pages.
  • Family-film hold, weekend additions, and local market momentum.
  • Any page-object replacement, merged counting, or metric-definition change.

Related Markets

FAQ

  • Is this worldwide total or Mexico only?
    It follows the Mexico cumulative total only.
  • Must it still be above MX$1.2B at the deadline?
    No. One authoritative Mexico cumulative snapshot at or above the line is enough.
  • Why keep Other?
    To cover edge cases where the reporting page or counting method changes materially.

This page organizes public information, verifiable paths, and active discussion points. It is not a HiYesNo prediction, and the final outcome still follows the listed resolution rules.

  • >= MX$1.2B
  • No
  • Other

Event Details

Predict whether The Super Mario Galaxy Movie reaches MX$1.2B in Mexico by July 31.

Outcomes

  • >= MX$1.2B 34%
  • No 33%
  • Other 33%

Resolution Rules

This market resolves to ">= MX$1.2B" if The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's cumulative Mexico box office is at least 1,200,000,000 Mexican pesos by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Mexico City time, according to Box Office Mojo, The Numbers, CANACINE, or official distributor reporting. It resolves to "No" if the comparable Mexico cumulative gross is below MX$1.2B at that time. It resolves to "Other" if the Mexico theatrical release is canceled or delayed beyond the deadline, if no reliable comparable Mexico gross is published by August 1, 2026, or if the film title/release changes so the data cannot be matched. This rule is objectively verifiable and covers 100% of possible outcomes.

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