Resolution Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on or before September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM Moscow Time, the Russian Federation publishes or issues an official legal instrument with legal effect that explicitly declares war on Ukraine or explicitly establishes a formal state of war between the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

Qualifying evidence must be an official presidential decree, federal law, declaration, or other binding state act published by the Kremlin, Russia's official legal publication portal, the Federation Council, or the State Duma, and must explicitly identify Ukraine as the state against which war is declared. Continued military operations, escalation, mobilization, martial law inside Russia or occupied territories, use of the word "war" in a speech or interview, statements by individual officials or legislators, diplomatic rupture, or a foreign government's characterization will not qualify without a binding Russian act explicitly declaring war.

The primary resolution sources will be official publications of the President of Russia, publication.pravo.gov.ru, the Federation Council, and the State Duma. Reuters, AP, TASS, and other established outlets may be used to confirm translation, authenticity, and legal effect, but media reports alone cannot resolve the market to "Yes."