Resolution Rules

This market resolves to "Yes" if the RealClearPolitics (RCP) composite polling average for President Trump's job approval rating reaches 50.0% or higher at any single data point published before December 31, 2026 23:59 Beijing Time (UTC+8). It resolves to "No" if the RCP composite average remains below 50.0% through that deadline without ever reaching 50.0% at any recorded data point. It resolves to "Other" if: (a) RealClearPolitics discontinues or materially changes its composite methodology; (b) the composite average is not published or updated for more than 30 consecutive days before the deadline; or (c) the result cannot be verified from RCP or at least two of the secondary sources (Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, FiveThirtyEight) within 7 days after the deadline. Primary resolution source: RealClearPolitics.com composite average. Secondary sources: Silver Bulletin (natesilver.net), FiveThirtyEight (fivethirtyeight.com). The threshold boundary is ≥50.0% (fifty percent, inclusive). This rule is intended to be objectively verifiable and to cover 100% of possible outcomes.