Will Phoenix record a high temperature of 115°F or higher by July 4?

Event Snapshot

This is an extreme-weather market on whether Phoenix will record a high of 115°F or above by July 4, 2026. Users search heat waves, official high temperatures, station records, and heat alerts, all verifiable from official weather sources.

Market Background

Temperature-threshold weather events naturally fit local-search pages. Users do not just ask whether it is hot; they search whether a record is threatened, what the official station high is, and whether 115°F gets hit. For a content page, that is far stronger than generic weather description.

Latest Developments

• 2026-07-05 | NOAA/NWS | The official station high remains the only valid core for settlement
  This market does not settle on feels-like values or social screenshots. It settles on the official high recorded by the relevant station. Once that number is available, the result becomes clear.
  Open source
• 2026-07-05 | NWS Phoenix | Heat-wave forecasts and hourly trajectories shape the 115°F expectation
  Near the line, users repeatedly check hourly forecasts, official discussions, and heat messaging because those signals change whether 115°F feels realistically in reach.
  Open source
• 2026-07-05 | HiYesNo | A clean '115°F or not' line works better than vague heat-wave chatter
  A fixed temperature threshold lets the page connect weather buzz, official data, and the final settlement boundary in one cleaner reading flow.
  Open source

Decision Criteria

• Yes: an official weather source confirms that the relevant Phoenix rule station records a high of 115°F or above.
• No: by July 5, 2026 12:59 Beijing Time, the official high still has not reached 115°F.
• Other: the rule station, measurement method, or observation object changes materially, preventing verification under one consistent official standard.

Timeline And Key Nodes

• Observation window: through July 5, 2026 12:59 Beijing Time.
• Yes trigger: the official daily high record shows 115°F or above.
• No trigger: every official high record before the deadline remains below 115°F.

Key Indicators

• NOAA/NWS official station high-temperature records.
• Hourly forecasts, heat discussions, and extreme-heat messaging.
• Any station switch, data revision, or metric-definition change.

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FAQ

• Does this use feels-like temperature?
  No. It follows the official high at the rule station only.
• Must 115°F be hit at a specific hour?
  No. Any official daily high at or above 115°F is enough.
• Why keep Other?
  To cover edge cases where the station or measurement standard changes materially.

This page organizes public information, verifiable paths, and active discussion points. It is not a HiYesNo prediction, and the final outcome still follows the listed resolution rules.

• Yes
• No
• Other

Event Details

Predict whether Phoenix records a high temperature of 115°F or higher by July 4, 2026.