Will China's National Meteorological Center issue a red warning for Typhoon Bavi by July 10? | HiYesNo

Event Details

Event Snapshot

Typhoon Bavi entered Chinese hot lists because of intensity and track questions. The cleanest prediction is whether the official warning level reaches red. This market only checks NMC red-warning issuance for Bavi.

Market Background

Warning-color markets are cleaner than subjective impact questions because color, time and issuer are explicit. Users search typhoon track, landfall timing, alert color and affected regions.

Latest Developments

  • 2026-07-08 | Zhihu Hot | Typhoon Bavi intensity discussion
    Hot-list discussion focuses on intensity, landfall possibility and coastal wind-rain risk.
    Open source
  • 2026-07-08 | NMC | Typhoon warning page
    NMC's typhoon-warning page is the core source for alert color and issue time.
    Open source

Decision Criteria

  • YES: the official condition named in the title is met.
  • NO: the condition is not met by the deadline.
  • OTHER: the official basis changes, the event is canceled/postponed, or the result cannot be verified.

Timeline And Key Nodes

  • Observation window: from current trend discussion to the event deadline.
  • Key nodes: official page, chart or data-source updates.
  • Boundary: only public verifiable sources count.

Key Indicators

  • Official announcements, official charts or authoritative data pages.
  • Major media confirmation of the same official result.
  • Any delay, cancellation or methodology change.

Related Markets

FAQ

  • Do rumors count?
    No, only official or authoritative public sources count.
  • What if data is delayed?
    If published inside the rule window it counts; otherwise Other applies.
  • Does HiYesNo make a subjective call?
    No, the English rules and verifiable sources control.

This page organizes public information, verifiable paths and active debate points. It does not represent a HiYesNo call, and the English resolution rules control the final outcome.

Outcomes

  • Yes 50%
  • No 50%
  • Other 1%

Resolution Rules

This market resolves to "Yes" if the China National Meteorological Center issues a typhoon red warning that explicitly applies to Typhoon Bavi on or before July 10, 2026, 23:59 Beijing Time. It resolves to "No" if no such red warning is issued by the deadline. It resolves to "Other" if Bavi is renamed, merged, downgraded out of the warning system, or official warning pages become unavailable so the alert status cannot be verified. The primary resolution source is the official or authoritative source named in this market description, with credible media used only to confirm the same public record.

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