Will Gao County, Sichuan record another M4.0+ earthquake by July 10? | HiYesNo

Event Details

Event Snapshot

After two M5.0 quakes in Gao County, the immediate public question is whether notable aftershocks continue. This market does not judge damage; it only checks CENC public records for another M4.0+ event.

Market Background

Earthquake markets work best with official magnitude, time and epicenter data rather than subjective damage descriptions. Searches around Gao County focus on shaking, aftershocks, depth and nearby-city impact.

Latest Developments

  • 2026-07-08 | Zhihu Hot | Gao County earthquake discussion
    Zhihu hot discussion shows attention on repeated Gao County quakes, shaking reports and local conditions.
    Open source
  • 2026-07-08 | CENC | Official earthquake records
    CENC provides time, location, magnitude and depth, making it the primary settlement source.
    Open source

Decision Criteria

  • YES: the official condition named in the title is met.
  • NO: the condition is not met by the deadline.
  • OTHER: the official basis changes, the event is canceled/postponed, or the result cannot be verified.

Timeline And Key Nodes

  • Observation window: from current trend discussion to the event deadline.
  • Key nodes: official page, chart or data-source updates.
  • Boundary: only public verifiable sources count.

Key Indicators

  • Official announcements, official charts or authoritative data pages.
  • Major media confirmation of the same official result.
  • Any delay, cancellation or methodology change.

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FAQ

  • Do rumors count?
    No, only official or authoritative public sources count.
  • What if data is delayed?
    If published inside the rule window it counts; otherwise Other applies.
  • Does HiYesNo make a subjective call?
    No, the English rules and verifiable sources control.

This page organizes public information, verifiable paths and active debate points. It does not represent a HiYesNo call, and the English resolution rules control the final outcome.

Outcomes

  • Yes 50%
  • No 50%
  • Other 1%

Resolution Rules

This market resolves to "Yes" if CENC records another earthquake with magnitude 4.0 or greater whose official epicenter is in Gao County, Yibin, Sichuan, on or before July 10, 2026, 23:59 Beijing Time. It resolves to "No" if no such official CENC record appears by the deadline. It resolves to "Other" if CENC materially revises the location basis so the event cannot be mapped to Gao County, or official data is unavailable in the resolution window. The primary resolution source is the official or authoritative source named in this market description, with credible media used only to confirm the same public record.

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